Articles and Series
Technology Notes
45
Holiday Reflections II: The End of the MVP and the Return of Experienced B2B Builders
Holiday Reflections I: Disruptive Innovation
Holiday Reading II: The Restless Clock
Holiday Reading I: Finite and Infinite Games
Hidden Knowledge: Notes From Building Enterprise AI Knowledge Bases
Models Treat Statistical Deviations as Noise. We May Need to Be Contrary
After the Cycle Turns: How Should Personal Capital Follow AI?
After the Cycle Turns: Protecting the Price of Your Work
Against the Kondratiev Cycle: Perhaps the Last Wave of Highly Paid Human Labor
Model Valuations: A Poor Business Model at an Expensive Price
Why the LLM API Business Is Such a Poor Business Model
If OpenAI Has No Innovation, Where Is Kimi K3’s?
AI Finished the Homework. What Happens to the Apprentice?
The FDE Trap: Are AI Companies Becoming Staffing Contractors?
Red Teams in Practice: One AI Writes a Report, Four AIs Challenge It
The Model Arms Race: Kimi K3 and the Marketing of 2.8 Trillion Parameters
Two Meanings of Open Source That Many People Confuse
A Response to Palantir’s CEO: Does Charging per Token Signal a Lack of Confidence?
Loop: Saving Money by Fooling Yourself, or Paying to Stay Honest
The Openness Trap in AI Infrastructure
When Every AI Shares the Same Memory of You
AI Equality Is a False Promise: Giving Everyone a Sniper Rifle
A Weekend Conversation with a CFO: Why Published Experts Cannot Always Be Trusted
Why AI Quant Backtests Shine while Live Trading Loses Money
Why Anthropic Fable Was Taken Down: The Story Spreading on X
What Is an Ontology, and How Is an Ontology-Based Agent Different From a Workflow Agent?
After the Subsidies Recede: Revisiting My Compute Valuation Model
After a Philosopher Leaves, We Finally Ask What Our Products Are Killing
A Counterintuitive Survey of OpenClaw at Work
DeepSeek V4: DualPath and the Bandwidth Bottleneck
Herding Sheep or Chopping Wood? Your Workflow Is Your Pasture
Power Games: The Pentagon, Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI
The Pentagon Finally Bans Anthropic
Anthropic versus the Pentagon: Moral Scruples or Playing God?
Another Doomsday Forecast: Citrini Gives an Old Story an AI Makeover
From DAU to TPD: Measuring Value through Compute Consumption
Is SaaS Finished? Remember the Advantages of Carbon-Based Life
A New Anchor for AI Valuations: The Physical Constraints of Compute Costs — Illustrated
A New Anchor for AI Valuations: The Physical Constraints of Compute Costs
AI and Self-Knowledge: Are We Building Our Own Information Cocoon?
AGI and the End of Human Marginal Productivity?
Writing a Constitution for AI: Competing Logics and the Reshaping of Power
AI: When You Cannot Afford Louis Vuitton, a Bag with Its Label Will Do
The Digital Double and Knowing Yourself: AI as a Cognitive Mirror
Two Worlds of Technology: AI for Productivity in America, AI for Attention in China
Vibe Coding
8
An A-Share Knowledge Graph Inspired by Ontology and Graphy
Simon-GNL Stock-Screening Agent: Day 3
Simon-GNL Stock-Screening Agent: Day 2
Simon-GNL Stock-Screening Agent: Day 1
Designing a Framework for Screening High-Quality Stocks
Running Claude Code Locally on a 128GB Mac Studio
An Open-Source Tool for Refactoring Million-Line Legacy Codebases
A Note on Using AI Coding Tools: Judge the Work, Not the Hype
Investment Due Diligence
44
Seventeen Days before Unlock: SpaceX and a $52 Billion AI Order
Deflation-Era Consumer Comparisons: Gambol Pet Group (301498.SZ)
Deflation-Era Consumer Comparisons: Yifeng Pharmacy (603939.SH)
Everyone Says Buy, the Stock Halves: Building an Investment Red Team
Deflation-Era Consumer Comparisons: Midea Group (000333.SZ)
Deflation-Era Consumer Comparisons: Proya (603605.SH)
Deflation-Era Consumer Comparisons: Wancheng Group (300972.SZ)
Deflation-Era Consumer Comparisons: Eastroc Beverage (605499.SH)
Japan’s Lost Decades: Which A-Shares Deserve Research?
Apple’s $250 Upgrade: What Buffett Means by Pricing Power
Healthcare Leaders IV: United Imaging (688271.SH)
The End of Broad Healthcare Rallies: New Industry Economics
Hengrui Pharma (600276.SH): Key Bull-Bear Disagreements
Healthcare Leaders III: Hengrui Pharma (600276.SH)
Healthcare Leaders II: WuXi AppTec (603259.SH)
Healthcare Leaders I: Mindray (300760.SZ)
Leader Harmonious Drive (688017.SH): High Quality, High Valuation
Shuanghuan Driveline (002472.SZ): Full Research Workflow
Simon-GNL Reverse Screening: Shuanghuan Driveline (002472.SZ)
Simon-GNL Test: Screening the Robotics Sector
Xingye Silver & Tin: Executive Summary
YOFC (601869.SH / 06869.HK): Comprehensive Due Diligence
YOFC (601869.SH): Technical Outlook — Wait and See
Hengrui Pharma (600276.SH): Watching the Fundamentals
Hengrui Pharma (600276): May 2026 Bearish Technical Outlook
Lingrui Pharmaceutical (600285.SH): Bullish Technical Outlook
Lingrui Pharmaceutical (600285): A Bearish Fundamental View
China Merchants Bank (600036.SH): Executive Summary
China Merchants Bank (600036.SH): May 2026 Technical Analysis
External Variables Affecting Games and G-bits (603444)
Energy Drinks: Policy and External Variables
China’s Energy Drink Industry: In-Depth Research
Eastroc Beverage (605499.SH): Executive Summary
Tayho Advanced Materials (002254.SZ): Executive Summary
Aramid: Competition and Development Trends
China’s Spandex Cycle and Supply-Demand Dynamics
G-bits (603444): Investment Due Diligence
Changshan Pharmaceutical (300255): Executive Summary
Yealink (300628.SZ): Executive Summary and Final Conclusions
Lingrui Pharmaceutical (600285): Due Diligence — Executive Summary
Tayho Advanced Materials (002254.SZ): Comprehensive Due Diligence
SGIT (600131): Comprehensive Investment Due Diligence
GigaDevice (603986.SH): Comprehensive Investment Due Diligence
G-bits (603444.SH): Due Diligence — Executive Summary
AI Hardware Short Thesis
9
One Power Bottleneck, Two Opposite Views: Goldman Goes Long, I Go Short
Shorting 58 A-Share AI Hardware Companies VII: Servers, Networks, and Conclusions
Shorting 58 A-Share AI Hardware Companies VI: Power Equipment
Shorting 58 A-Share AI Hardware Companies V: Copper Links and Liquid Cooling
Shorting 58 A-Share AI Hardware Companies IV: PCB, CCL, and Backplanes
Shorting 58 A-Share AI Hardware Companies III: Ratings and Optical Modules
Buffett Is Mocked Again: A-Shares, 1999, and a Bird in the Hand
Shorting 58 A-Share AI Hardware Companies II: BOM TAM and the Company Universe
Shorting 58 A-Share AI Hardware Companies I: Physical Limits
Top 24 Low-PEG Stocks · May 31, 2026
49
PEG Study 24: Allist — High Quality, Few Catalysts
PEG Study 24: Allist — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 23: Northeast Securities — Too Many Uncertainties
PEG Study 23: Northeast Securities — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 22: Sealand Securities — Limited Appeal
PEG Study 22: Sealand Securities — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 21: Chifeng Gold — An Upgrade from the Previous Review
PEG Study 21: Chifeng Gold — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 20: Innolight — A Further Downgrade
PEG Study 20: Innolight — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 19: Batian — Steady Hold
PEG Study 19: Batian — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 18: Zoli Pharmaceutical — Cautious Hold
PEG Study 18: Zoli Pharmaceutical — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 17: Songfa / Hengli Heavy Industry — Cautious Assessment
PEG Study 17: Songfa / Hengli Heavy Industry — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 16: Jiantu Energy — Watch Coal Prices
PEG Study 16: Jiantu Energy — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 15: Huaneng Power — Watch Coal Prices
PEG Study 15: Huaneng Power — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 14: Century Huatong — Cautious Hold
PEG Study 14: Century Huatong — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 13: Sichuan AI-Link Technology — Overvalued
PEG Study 13: Sichuan AI-Link Technology — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 12: Datang Power — Avoid
PEG Study 12: Datang Power — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 11: CMOC — Overvalued
PEG Study 11: CMOC — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 10: China Tungsten and Hightech — Low PEG, Already Overvalued
PEG Study 10: China Tungsten and Hightech — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 9: BeiGene — Policy Risk Comes First
PEG Study 9: BeiGene — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 8: LiuGong — Cautious Observation
PEG Study 8: LiuGong — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 7: Shanjin International — Gold Prices Are the Main Risk
PEG Study 7: Shanjin International — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 6: Tengyuan Cobalt — Deteriorating Cash Flow
PEG Study 6: Tengyuan Cobalt — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 5: China CSSC — Limited Margin of Safety
PEG Study 5: China CSSC — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 4: Giant Network — Waiting to Add
PEG Study 4: Giant Network — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 3: China Southern Airlines — Still Recovering
PEG Study 3: China Southern Airlines — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 2: Tongkun Group — Limited Margin of Safety
PEG Study 2: Tongkun Group — Detailed Analysis
PEG Study 1: Zhuzhou Smelter Group — Low PEG, Limited Appeal
PEG Study 1: Zhuzhou Smelter Group — Detailed Analysis
24 Low-PEG A-Share Candidates: Results and Assumptions to Verify
2026 A-Shares: 72 Companies with ROIC above 20%
73
ROIC Study 71: CFMOTO — Fairly Valued
ROIC Study 72: CCGrass — Fairly Valued to Expensive
ROIC Study 68: Jinbei Automotive — Dependent on BMW
ROIC Study 69: J.S. Machine — Waiting for Recovery
ROIC Study 70: Yunnan Aluminium — Fairly Valued to Expensive
ROIC Study 65: Rich Intelligent — A Newly Listed Company
ROIC Study 66: Hisense Home Appliances — Holding and Waiting
ROIC Study 67: Tubao — Waiting for Recovery
ROIC Study 62: Wus Printed Circuit — Already Priced In
ROIC Study 63: Farad Electronics — Expensive
ROIC Study 64: Sund Industrial — Fairly Valued
ROIC Study 59: Shenma Power — Waiting for a Pullback
ROIC Study 60: Sinexcel — Overvalued
ROIC Study 61: UGREEN — Fairly Valued to Expensive
ROIC Study 56: Dahao Technology — Fairly Valued to Undervalued
ROIC Study 57: Anker Innovations — Long-Term Hold
ROIC Study 58: Himile — Considering Pullbacks
ROIC Study 53: Sieyuan Electric — Neutral Hold
ROIC Study 54: Lingrui Pharmaceutical — Cautious Hold
ROIC Study 55: Changchuan Technology — Fairly Valued to Expensive
ROIC Study 50: Kingnet Network — Fairly Valued to Undervalued
ROIC Study 51: Chifeng Gold — Worth Waiting For
ROIC Study 52: Fostar — Strongly Favored
ROIC Study 47: Proya — Waiting for a Turnaround
ROIC Study 48: Guocheng Mining — Tied Closely to Molybdenum Prices
ROIC Study 49: Zhengdan — Near a Low Point
ROIC Study 44: Meyer Optoelectronic — A Mature Cash Cow
ROIC Study 45: Ninebot — Already Priced In
ROIC Study 46: Gude Electrical Materials — Already Priced In
ROIC Study 41: WuXi AppTec — A Cash Machine Awaiting Recovery
ROIC Study 42: Sinofuse — Overvalued
ROIC Study 43: Gongniu Group — Awaiting Recovery
ROIC Study 38: Rockchip — Worth Considering
ROIC Study 39: Sichuan Gold — Overvalued
ROIC Study 40: Victory Giant Technology — Already Priced In
ROIC Study 35: Deye — Steady Hold
ROIC Study 36: Sungrow — Steady Hold
ROIC Study 37: Guanghe Technology — Already Priced In
ROIC Study 34: Zangge Mining — Considering Pullbacks
ROIC Study 32: Neway Valve — Relatively Undervalued
ROIC Study 33: Sanmei — A Poor Time to Chase
ROIC Study 29: Yanjin Shop — Waiting for the Right Moment
ROIC Study 30: Higold Group — Neutral Hold
ROIC Study 31: Hongqiao Holdings — Worth Considering
ROIC Study 26: HeartCare Medical — Already Priced In
ROIC Study 27: Darentang — Waiting for an Entry Opportunity
ROIC Study 28: Lakala — Limited Upside
ROIC Study 24: Yealink — Undervalued
ROIC Study 23: Action Education — A Limited Growth Ceiling
ROIC Study 25: Bluetrum — Waiting and Watching
ROIC Study 20: Shanxi Fenjiu — Still Waiting
ROIC Study 21: Kweichow Moutai — Undervalued, but Patience Is Needed
ROIC Study 22: Supor — Years of Decline
ROIC Study 17: Ice River Network — Significantly Undervalued
ROIC Study 18: Tebao Biological — Fairly Valued
ROIC Study 19: Shengda Forestry — A Company to Avoid
ROIC Study 14: Yutong Bus — Relatively Undervalued
ROIC Study 15: Allist — Fairly Valued to Undervalued
ROIC Study 16: Hithink RoyalFlush — Fairly Valued to Undervalued
ROIC Study 11: TCL Smart Home — Undervalued
ROIC Study 12: Acter — Cautious Avoidance
ROIC Study 13: Eastroc Beverage — Waiting for a Second Growth Engine
ROIC Study 8: Innolight — A Market Favorite
ROIC Study 9: Sunshine Guojian — Waiting for Catalysts
ROIC Study 10: G-bits — Undervalued
ROIC Study 5: Wancheng Group — Cautious Observation
ROIC Study 6: Sanrui Intelligent — A Newly Listed Company
ROIC Study 7: TFC Communication — Waiting for Validation
ROIC Study 2: Chongqing Brewery — Relatively Undervalued
ROIC Study 3: Eoptolink — Fully Priced In
ROIC Study 4: Zhongyida — A Company to Avoid
ROIC Study 1: Tongzhou Electronics — Avoid the ROIC Trap
2026 A-Share ROIC above 20%: A 72-Company Research Project
Wilderness Expeditions
9
The Ultimate Dream Journey — IX: The Finale
The Ultimate Dream Journey — VIII
The Ultimate Dream Journey — VII
The Ultimate Dream Journey — VI
The Ultimate Dream Journey — V
The Ultimate Dream Journey — IV
The Ultimate Dream Journey — III
The Ultimate Dream Journey — II
The Ultimate Dream Journey — I
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Running Claude Code Locally on a 128GB Mac Studio
May 7, 2026
English version awaiting publication